How many flat earthers are there? – Part II – (also predictions for 2018)

   Warning : a VERY LONG article.

   

   On July 20th, 2017, I posted this article :

https://flateartheducation.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/how-many-flat-earthers-are-thereis-300-million-far-fetched/

   Back than, I estimated the number of flat earthers to be around 300 million, worldwide. I missed enough reliable survey data, and my entire estimation was based on Google Trends, statistical logical assumptions and a number of various polls from forums and media. Two days ago, AFP published a poll about how French people respond to various conspiracy theories.

   On December 16th, 2017, I posted this article, where I believed that there shoulkd be over 10% flat earthers, 3 weeks before the AFP poll

https://flateartheducation.wordpress.com/2017/12/16/why-we-dont-know-how-many-flat-earthers-are-out-there/

   

   I had some data that I could not add back in July, simply because I couldn’t find a reliable, to-date, serious survey. Now, thanks to AFP, I have an important piece of data, that narrows the error margin in estimating the numbers of flat earthers.

   Before I go into detail, I want to say that my estimation of 300 million flat earthers back in July 2017, was correct, and statistically speaking (with the help of adding data I could not use back than), the real number was above 300 million.

   This is the link to the article about the results of the poll took in France (there are more links today, but I will use the one that was published first) :

https://www.thelocal.fr/20180108/from-flat-earth-theory-to-the-moon-landings-what-the-french-think-of-conspiracy-theories

   This is the first paragraph from the article :

“One in ten French people believe the Earth may be flat and 16 percent think the US faked its moon landings, according to a new survey, which tested some of the most famous ones on a group of 1,200 people. Here’s what’s else they believe.”

   The poll took place on December 19-20, 2017. As fresh as possible.

   Now, the article states “One in ten French people believe the Earth may be flat”, wish is clearly a shitty attempt at discounting the percentage, because 10% flat earthers is a worrisome number for the Globe Cult. I have yet to see, hear, or read about someone who MAY think that the earth is flat. It is either FLAT or it is a GLOBE.

   So, 10% of the French responders to this poll are flat earthers, and 16% believe that Moon landings were faked. We all know that a Moon landings believer is also a Globe Cult believer, and a Moon landings denier is most likely a flat earther, or it is one step away to becoming one.

   The way that information spreads today, both in volume and speed, paired with social media impact, led 10% of the French people to be flat earthers (from probably 0% in 2014), in just 3 years.

   Can we extrapolate the results of the French poll to the rest of the world, and expect reliable results? No, we absolutely cannot do that, without expecting massive errors. But we can compare this fresh poll data, to what I had back in July 2017, and extrapolate from there, with a minimal error result.

   On July 12, 2001, an article was posted on The Irish Times :https://www.irishtimes.com/news/charles-k-johnson-relentlessly-argued-that-the-earth-was-flat-1.317428

   The Irish Post cited a poll took in 1994, by Washington Post, where 9% of the Americans believed that the Moon landings were faked.

   To argue on behalf of the impact of Internet and social media, on May 6th, 2015, a 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair revealed that 14% of the Americans believed that Moon landings were faked ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-vanity-fair-poll-conspiracy/ ).

   A poll published on September 2016 (the poll was took on September 18-22 2016, reveled that 10% of Romanians believe that the Earth is flat (https://www.antena3.ro/life/stiinta/studiu-horoscop-pamant-plat-romani-378641.html). (use Google Translate).

   A poll took in the U.K., published by The Mirror, on July 19th, 2016, revealed that 52% of the Brits believed that the Moon landings were fake. Flat Earth is not on this poll, however, I strongly believe that it was, but the result was removed, most likely because the percentage was close between 15% and 20%. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/moon-landing-celebrates-47th-anniversary-8446862).

   In a poll took by a Wyoming radio station (most voters were from outside Wyoming anyway) titled “Does Wyoming believe in Flat Earth?” , back in April 2016, showed a 15,63% of the voters to be flat earthers (http://kisscasper.com/does-wyoming-believe-in-flat-earth-poll/). While this poll might not give reliable data by itself, corroborating and comparing with other data, it helps at least show the trends and reduce the final result error margin.

   Another poll, published on May 1st, 2017, shows that between 6% and 20% of the Americans, and 28% of the Russians, believed that Moon landings were faked :https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/05/01/never-went-moon-americas-thirty-billion-dollar-swindle-2/

   The next link is not a poll or a survey, it just proves how the Globe Cult believers lie, attempting to diminish the giant that Flat Earth is : http://flatearthlunacy.com/index.php/2-uncategorised/645-flat-earth-2017-official-survey-how-are-these-people

   Couple excerpts from the above link :

“Of the estimated 210,000* flat Earth world-wide supporters, the majority of them reside in the United States.”

“The 210,000* estimate is based on the current number of unique subscribers to YouTube flat Earth channels”

   This was posted on November 2017. As you can see, the pricks that run that site, estimate the number of Flat Earth supporters to be 210,000, adding an asterisk, in an attempt to show that they might be off, but not my much, maybe couple hundreds.

   Why do I say that they are lying? Here is a link from another source, that analyzed the rise of subscribers for the Indonesian YouTube channel “Flat Earth 101”, back on May 9th, 2017, 6 months before the “210,000* “estimate” made by the Globe Cult believers :https://medium.com/egoegi/how-could-pseudoscience-able-to-succeed-with-8-million-viewers-9ab48c417a40

   The data they gathered on May 9th, 2017, is not only about Flat Earth 101 YT channel, but first 20 Flat Earth channels at that date, channels with more than 2 years activity. The total numbers of subscribers of those 20 Flat Earth channels (at that date) was 727,000. Almost 3.5 times higher than what the globie pricks estimated. It is hard to spend time to actually find the truth, and globies do not spend enough time, because the truth might scare them.

   So, looking at all the numbers and percentages I have now, how many flat earthers were out there at the end of 2017 ?

   First, I will remove the U.K. poll that shows 52% of the Brits believing that the Moon landing were fake. The reason to remove this data is exclusively statistical. It is too high compared to all the others and must be removed.

   Secondly, based on the French poll, the social media impact (YouTube, FB) and mainstream media impact (BoB, Kyrie, 2017 Flat Earth Convention coverage) I will estimate that 60% to 65% of those that believe that Moon landings were faked. This is a fairly conservative percentage (I think it is at least 80%), but it is better to be on the low-end of an estimation that on the high-end.

   Third step is to see the numbers for those who believe that Moon landings were faked, and what was the trend.The U.S. jumped from 9% in 1994, to 14% in 2015 and close to 20% in May 2017. Russia stands at 28%, in May 2017 and France at 16% last month.

   If we consider that 60%-65% of those that believe that Moon landings were faked are also flat earthers, we have 12% to 13% American flat earthers,  16.8% to 18.2% Russian flat earthers and 9.6% to 10.4% French flat earthers. The polls specifically asking about Flat Earth show 10% of the French (December 2017) and 10% of the Romanians (September 2016) to be flat earthers.

   Only the U.S., France and Romania have almost similar numbers. The Russian numbers are almost double that the U.S., French and Romanians, and while those numbers might be real, from a statistical point of view, they must be excluded.

   A real percentage of flat earthers now, is somewhere in-between 10% and 13% of the adult population.Surveyers and pollsters, while sometimes ask people under the age of 18 years old, the data I have is from people aged over 18 years old.

   The differences in culture, religion, race, nationality, morals, history, education, etc. between the U.S., France and Romania, are high enough to consider that the polls in these 3 countries cover the entire spectrum of the Western world. We can fairly assume that the percentage of flat earthers in the U.S. is the same as in Canada, Australia and New Zeeland ( Google Trends show that in these 3 countries the interest for Flat Earth is almost the same : https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=flat%20earth).

   We can also fairly assume that the percentage on flat earthers in the European Union is most likely the same as in France in Romania (10%), however, Eastern Europe and Northern Europe countries have a higher percentage ( Estonia, Sweden, Norway, Croatia, Poland), but it might be lower in Spain and Germany, so it will end up close to 10%, maybe 11% anyway.

   India and China. These 2 countries, combined, have over 2.7 billion people, from a total of 7.6 billion (according to official figures). Only 30% of the Indians and 53% of the Chinese have access to Internet. Even with 30% Interent users, Indians interest for flat earth is in the upper half, between Hungary and Pakistan, which, if we consider all the data I have, there should be around 3% of the Indian adults that are flat earthers. Even if I do not have any data, I can safely estimate that between 4-5% of the Chinese adults are flat earthers.

   While the approach for India and China might look completely wrong to some of you, back in July 2017, my estimates for China and India were around 0.5% flat earthers, exclusively based on Google Trends. Now, I can estimate a fairly higher percentage, in line with the trends for the Western countries.

   In July 2017, I estimated the number of flat earthers to be 300 million, which was roughly 4% of the world population, or roughly 6% of the adult population.Today, the data from polls and surveys, show roughly 10% of the adult population to be flat earthers, which is roughly 7.5% of the entire world population (7.6 billion).

  535 million people were flat earthers at the end of 2017.

  This represents an increase (from July 2017) of 235 million people, roughly 78% more.

   As I said, I believe now (because of more data that I have) that my estimate of 300 million in July 2017, was not correct, and it was probably over 300 million. A 78% increase in flat earthers between July 20th, 2017 and  December 20th, 2017, seems fairly unrealistic, but considering the August eclipse and the Flat Earth conference coverage in media, both social and mainstream, and the increase in the number of the Americans who believed that the Moon landing were a hoax, a more realistic increase should be around 50%. Which means that the numbers of flat earthers in July 2017, was not 300 million, but between 350 millions and 360 millions.

   To see if a 50% increase is a realistic number, thanks to the Indonesian site, who published the subscribers and viewers of the first 20 Flat Earth YouTube channels, I can now compare that numbers, from May 2017, to today’s numbers. If the trend will show a 50% or close to 50% increase in subscribers and viewers, my estimates will be quite correct.

   I will post again the link for the YouTube data back on May 9th 2017 : https://medium.com/egoegi/how-could-pseudoscience-able-to-succeed-with-8-million-viewers-9ab48c417a40

   Eric Dubay’s channel was suspended on December 13th, just 2 weeks before the AFP poll, and luckily, I had the data, so it will be added to comparison. DITRH and RussianVids were also suspended, and while DITRH channel is back one, I will not add it. D.Marble, with 25,000+ subs will also not be added. Only first 8 channels that were active on May 9th 2017 and today will be added to comparison.These 8 channels cumulate over 85% of the subscribers and over 90% of the views.

   Source : https://socialblade.com

   1.Eric Dubay :

May 9th, 2017 – 100,671 subscribers – 22,553,367 views. December 13th, 2017 – 136,000 subscribers – almost 30 million views. 36% increase in subscribers and almost 40% increase in views.

   2.Rob Skiba :

May 9th, 2017 – 81,231 subscribers – 9,273,381 views. January 10th, 2018 – 117,627 subscribers – 14,741,479 views. 44.8% increase in subscribers and 58,96% increase in views.

   3.Flat Earth 101 :

May 9th, 2017 – 70,783 subscribers – 8,531,707 views. January 10th, 2018 – 120,283 subscribers – 12,970,667 views. 69.93% increase in subscribers and 52.02% increase in views.

   4.jeranism :

May 9th, 2017 – 67,052 subscribers – 10,529,717 views. January 10th, 2018 – 86,659 subscribers – 14,862,315 views. 29.24% increase in subscribers and 41.14% increase in views.

   5.ODD Reality :

May 9th, 2017 – 54,248 subscribers – 5,172,066 views. January 10th, 2018 – 114,842 subscribers – 9,899,300 views. 111.69% increase in subscribers and 91.4% increase in views.

   6.markksargent :

May 9th, 2017 – 33,891 subscribers – 6,483,215 views. January 10th, 2018 – 47,035 subscribers – 10,217,260 views. 38.78% increase in subscribers and 57.6% increase in views.

   7.Celebrate Truth :

May 9th, 2017 – 33,056 subscribers – 3,752,734 views. January 10th, 2018 – 51,223 subscribers – 6,520,112 views. 54.95% increase in subscribers and 73.74% increase in views.

   8.MrThriveAndSurvive :

May 9th, 2017 – 31,371 subscribers – 6,863,791 views. january 10th, 2018 – 40,501 subscribers – 8,797,581 views. 29.1% increase in subscribers and 28.17% increase in views.

   The median increase in subscribers of these 8 major Flat Earth channels is 51,81%, and the median increase in views of these 8 major Flat Earth channels is 55,37%.

 

   My estimate of 50% increase in the number of flat earthers, from July 20th 2017 to December 20th 2017 (5 months – 10% per month, median linear increase) is very close to the 51% and 55% increase for Flat Earth YouTube channels between May 9th 2017 and January 10th 2018 (9 months – 5.9% per month, median linear increase).

   The difference between a 10% and 5.9% median monthly linear increase, if any Globe Cult believer wants to use this as a rebutal of my statistical calculation, should first know that the increase in numbers of flat earthers was and still is exponential, the mainstream media also positively affects this increase, outside YouTube, that most Christian Flat Earthers choose to believe the Bible exclusively, and rarely watch or asking others to watch Flat Earth videos on YouTube, spreading Flat Earth to fellow Christians when in church or gatherings.

   

   So, there you have it.In July, this year, I will come with a 3rd estimate, that will benefit from much more polling data about flat earth, and it will either confirm or infirm my July 2017 estimate of 350-360 million flat earthers (revised from 300 million) and my today’s estimate of 535 million flat earthers.

   

   Predictions for 2018 : 

   Back in July 2017, I considered a 60% median increase in the numbers of flat earthers between November 2016 and July 2017 (8 months), a median monthly increase of 7.5%.

   Between July 2017 and today (bit less than 6 months) I considered a 50% median increase in the number of flat earthers, a median monthly increase of about 8.4% 

   All the data I have now points to the above numbers to be correct.For the end of this year (the numbers might be revised in next months), I expect the number of flat earthers to surpass, easily, 1 billion people.Just an 8.4% increase per month (the coming polls, and will be many, will confirm at least 8% increase) in the next 11 months, will more than double the 535 million flat earthers today.

   I expect at least 5-6 polls and surveys, made by major polling organization, by July.That data will hugely help our community to understand, if we haven’t understood by now, that while you are walking down the street, or go to work in a bus or a train, or go out with friends for a drink, at least 1 out of 10 people you see, is a flat earther.

   And by the end of this year, 2 out of 10 people you see is a flat earther.But with NASA idiots providing enough ammo on weekly basis, 3 Flat Earth Conventions coming up and increased mass media coverage, do not be surprised, at all, that by the end of this year, a third or maybe more of the people you see around you, to be flat earthers.

 

Flat Earth Education.

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